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News analysis: McGowan could be for year


News analysis: McGowan could be for year
As the 2008 season began, many baseball intellects thought Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Dustin McGowan (shoulder) was poised to break out in monumental fashion. Unfortunately, they've been wrong.

On the season, McGowan is 6-7 with 85 strikeouts, 38 walks, a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 111 1/3 innings. Now, with the news that he was placed on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday, July 9, with a tear in his right rotator cuff, the rocky road that his season has been on thus far has taken a turn for the worst.

McGowan finally succumbed to the pain in his right shoulder that has been haunting him for weeks. He was pulled after four innings of work Tuesday, July 8, against the Orioles and promptly underwent an MRI the following day that revealed a tear that was previously discovered near the end of last season.

At this point, McGowan is expected to miss roughly a month as he goes through a rehabilitation program aimed at getting the 6-foot-3, 230-pound right-hander back on the mound for the Blue Jays this season. However, don't be shocked if the Jays sit McGowan for the rest of the year. The team has indicated that his injury won't require surgery, which figures to be all the more reason to play it safe with his return and not risk further injury by pushing him.

Downward spiral

McGowan's 2007 campaign was by most standards an indicator of substantial success in seasons to come. He went 12-10 with 144 strikeouts, a 4.08 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 169 2/3 innings. Even more impressive was his limiting of opposing hackers to a staunch .230 average and a paltry 14 home runs along with registering two complete games (one shutout). Inside the Rogers Centre he was 8-3 with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and limited the opposition to a nasty .215 average.

The biggest sign that a possible breakout was looming was that he was 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 105 combined July, August and September innings. In September alone, he was 4-2 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 40 1/3 innings.

His 2008 season commenced with a 1-2 record, a 3.57 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in the month of April. Since then, he wasn't once able to record a monthly ERA less than 4.33. In the month of June, McGowan posted a 4.99 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and allowed the opposition to hit at a .275 clip, prompting many unsatisfied owners to cut ties with the 26-year-old or try to pawn his services off on an unwitting owner still thinking about what he accomplished as the 2007 campaign wound to an end. In July, his velocity was down along with his confidence and health, thus leading to his invitation to the disabled list soiree.

First flight

With McGowan down and out for the foreseeable future, the Blue Jays could utilize pitcher Brian Tallet for a few spot starts. Tallet has started just one game as a member of the Blue Jays, which came back in 2006. In 34 relief appearances this season, he is 0-1 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. However, the team pushed up pitcher A.J. Burnett's start to avoid starting Tallet in McGowan's slot Sunday, July 13, so he should remain on your waiver wire until the Jays decide who will take over McGowan's role for the time being.

Another option to fill the void left by McGowan is starting pitcher David Purcey, a member of Toronto's Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs. On the season, the 6-foot-5, 230-pound southpaw is 7-6 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and 114 strikeouts in 111 innings. In two starts for the Jays this season, he went 0-1 with three whiffs, 11 walks and a horrendous 11.05 ERA in 7 1/3 innings. He would be a speculative add in deeper AL-only leagues were he to be given McGowan's turn in the rotation.

As for other fantasy options, Florida Marlins starter Chris Volstad is flying off waiver wires after his fantastic first start. Volstad tossed an 8 2/3-inning gem Friday, July 11, against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He struck out six and walked one to earn his first career victory as a starter. Volstad is considered Florida's top pitching prospect and could be an able replacement for McGowan in deeper mixed leagues.

New York Mets starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey is another option as he is once again on the tips of owners' tongues. Over his last six starts, he is 6-0 with a 2.56 ERA. Inside the confines of Shea Stadium this season, he sports a 2.35 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 65 innings. Pelfrey is a fine addition in all mixed formats.

Fantasy baseball outlook

At this point in the season, fantasy owners should avoid putting too much stock in McGowan due to his sketchy shoulder. He doesn't have much of a track record and can be easily replaced in most mixed formats, especially with the mediocre numbers that have been coming from him over the course of the season.

However, it must be noted that the youngster has been suffering from a rotator cuff strain, which can easily derail a pitcher's performance and overall confidence. If he heals from this the way he should, he could come back with a bang and possibly return to the September 2007 form that spawned this spring's love affair with a bevy of owners.

As McGowan progresses with his rehab, owners should take note. Although it's highly advised not to hang onto him in shallow formats, he can be retained in deeper mixed league if you have the roster space in hopes that he'll return by mid-August. Those in AL-only leagues should absolutely keep McGowan until he's officially ruled out for the season. Just remember, he's rehabbing a velocity dehabilitating shoulder issue, so the real McGowan may not come out of hiding until 2009.


Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: July 16, 2008

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